All the President's men, minus a few, and all the King's horses
In the world’s febrile political climate, is it little wonder that recent elections have only added to the turmoil? From the Northern Atlantic through the Middle East to the South Pacific, things are not what they used to be only days ago.
First, some context for my comments. One of the more remarkable features of Australia, especially for overseas visitors, is that the nation collectively stops on the first Tuesday in November to watch the nation’s most famous horse race, the Melbourne Cup. Reflecting the growth of globalisation, the race has become an international contest in recent years. In 2018 the wealthy Godolphin family, who own a worldwide empire of horse studs and racehorses had their first victory in the race.
The winner was a horse called Cross Counter and it wore the Godolphin all blue racing silks. As it crossed the line, the commentator exclaimed, “the blue army has done it at last.”
Fast forward eight years and the same exclamation is ringing out across Washington as the blue wave of Democrat victories has upended Donald Trump’s control of Congress.
The strength of the blue tsunami became apparent in Australia on the night of 5th November. How appropriate: this was Guy Fawkes night when centuries ago a political explosion was attempted but was foiled.
So, the question is whether Trump will end his Presidency with a bang or a whimper. Will there be fireworks or acquiescence? Not that the President’s behaviour is predictable in any manner, initial indications are of a wounded lion, whose vanity is so great that he may recast himself as the unexpected man of compromise.
The US mid-terms results were a vindication of the democratic process. For all the new White House Ballrooms and refurbished reflecting pools, Trump could not escape the people’s judgement. An unfinished war, an unsustainable national debt and unrelenting inflationary pressures have clearly left many Americans feeling sceptical about the promised greatness of their country.
In Israel, a country whose governing Likud Party also has the motif of royal blue, the result of their election continues to be elusive as coalition talks continue. Whoever forms government may well feel less supported by America, especially concerning ongoing financial sustenance.
Australia’s Prime Minister would do well to note that the wrath of voters has always been a formidable force: “Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them.” Australian inflation stubbornly persists, energy costs skyrocket and house prices collapse at the same time that interest rates rise. Mr. Albanese, who has always prided himself on his electoral acumen, must recognise that no matter how large his temporal parliamentary majority is , it will not withstand the economic angst of a dispirited populace.
Last Saturday in New Zealand, a country whose democratic stability is far greater than its “shaky isles” geographic foundations, voters also delivered an Israeli like democratic impasse. The incumbent National government, also characterised by a vivid blue, appears slightly more likely to begin negotiations for a coalition government, but do not expect a clear resolution much before Christmas.
This year the Melbourne Cup was won by Point of Law, a horse that King Charles III sold to a group of Australian owners associated with an Irish trainer. Talk about the revenge of the colonies! As Harry and Meghan once again make base camp in England and Prince Andrew sits in on his internal estate of Elba, Charles must be wondering how many horses it is going to take to put the House of Windsor together again. When the King’s horse it racing silks were the royal purple; now, they too are a shade of blue.
In the political world, titans are falling and teetering. So too, in tennis. Novak Djokovic looks set to miss the end-of-year playoffs for the first time in living memory. However , his conqueror in the Australian final, Carlos Alcaraz has returned to the court and has strung together wins in Vienna and at the prestigious Paris Masters 1000, where he defeated Ben Shelton, who was his conqueror at the US Open. Thankfully, Paris has been spared further political firestorms and eruptions in recent days.
Newly crowned world No.1 Alexander Zverev may struggle to vindicate his ranking at the forthcoming playoffs in Turin, where four players- Coboli, Fils, Tiafoe and Jodar, will play in the elite eight for their first time alongside Zverev, Alcaraz, Shelton and Medvedev.
Tennis, whilst not as important as changes in government, reminds us that the established order changes. Nothing is the same for ever: circumstances, serendipity, timing, luck and the relentlessness of ‘time and tide’ sees to that. Observe, learn, adapt, and survive. Have we not known this all along?
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