And you thought the political racquet season was over?!
Well, the racquet Grand Slam is over! The Men’s season will end with a new No.1 ranked player. In keeping with the ambiguous mores of our era, Alex Zverev is a suitably complicated and controversial champion. Lionised for overcoming Diabetes 1, which was for decades seen as an insuperable barrier to athletic achievement, Zverev has many detractors who are dubious about the decency of his relationships off the court.
Speaking of relationships, the world’s No.1 Women’s player Elena Rybakina is forever fending off questions about her tortured on, off and apparently on again relationship with her coach.
Politically, there is a grand election season upon us. Between now and the end of November there are three significant elections. All elections are important, but the forthcoming trio are arguably somewhat more significant than others:
Israel has a general election on Tuesday 27th October.
The United States has its mid-term elections on 3rd November.
New Zealand has a general election on 7th November.
Yet, before these elections, as if we needed any proof, events continue to remind us that consensus about how political discourse, debates and decisions takes place is under siege.
Last weekend, without being overly melodramatic, the world sensed that France’s political system was shattered, if not broken, by the outbreak of a range of protests across the country. France, like other Western countries, is caught up in trying to manage the impossible demands of an angry and sceptical electorate- more of that below.
Australia, long regarded as the paragon of democratic virtues, was stunned yesterday when an independent member of its Federal Parliament was deliberately driven into outside her parliamentary office. Helen Haines, widely regarded as a humane and intelligent representative of her community, remains in a critical condition following emergency surgery.
Today residents of the Canadian province of Alberta are voting on whether to proceed further on the political road to secession.
So, why the angst? Why is democracy, the priceless gift of centuries of struggle for freedom and equality, suddenly under siege.
As all politicians know, it is all in the timing.
Western governments in the 1970s had to confront the economic dilemma of stagflation. The Phillips curve broke as nations faced simultaneously high inflation and unemployment following OPEC decision to quadruple the price of oil in 1973.
Today, there are far more damaging and, seemingly, intractable factors at play that are crippling the ability of democratic governments to convince their electorates that they, and the system itself are worthy.
So, what is the social cocktail that is damaging faith in Western democracy?
1. Take ageing baby boomer populations that require increased welfare and health spending to be cared for
2. Add shrinking populations of the Boomers’ successors who have a diminished ability to fund the needs of the elderly ( and, in France, a generation radically opposed to lifting the retirement age),
3. Throw in concerns about the costs of housing, add a twist of stubbornly high cost of living- food, education, insurance, childcare-, and don’t forget the increased costs of energy as much of the developed world seeks to move to renewable sources of power
4. Let’s not forget the need to maintain defence spending and manage concerns about the costs and pace of immigration.
5. Add the effects of the social media age where toxic Tik Tok rants about politics and the political process are ubiquitous and often generate ignorance and incite violence. Add AI that has made a generation restless about their future employment prospects.
6. Finally add undergraduate and middle-class rage and guilt about the perceived failures of imperialism, colonialism and capitalism and why are we surprised governments are under siege: who would want to lead a government these days? Or even enter politics?
Back to the forthcoming elections:
Israel: If ever an election was a referendum on the ideological, strategic and spiritual future of a country, this is it. Israel’s election will be held after, arguably, the two most traumatic years in the country’s young history. Benjamin Netanyahu, like his loyal ally Donald Trump, is a uniquely divisive figure. Either he is seen as the saviour and defender in chief of Israel or a tyrannical bully, threatening to wreak havoc on democratic institutions and principles and commit Israel to a permanent state of enmity with its neighbours. Israel’s optional voting system when combined with its proportional voting system may deliver yet another unstable coalition. An unstable Middle East means an unstable world order.
United States- We all know why President Trump has dramatically diluted his support for Ukraine’s President and let Russia re-enter the world’s petrol market. The unresolved war between America and Iran has led to cost-of-living pressures in America, centred around the price of gasoline. Trump would do well to remember Clinton’s 1992 electoral reminder “that it’s the economy stupid” as he moves heaven and earth to protect wafer thin Republican majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate. What is the more dismal prospect? Trump retaining control of the Congress and being unrestrained in his final two years, or the President being locked in an eternal twilight war of his Presidency with a Democrat controlled Congress?
New Zealand- After the misty-eyed and empathetic leadership of Jacinda Ardern who, as a true warrior of the Left, has left the country she professed to love and purchased a multi-million dollar home in Sydney, New Zealand has been governed for the last three years by conservative parties, led by former businessman Chris Luxon. The country’s economy is at best stagnating, at worst contracting. Due to New Zealand’s unique voting system (optional voting +MMP- there is not time to explain now) it is likely a coalition government will be formed. There is still an outside chance that perpetual conservative maverick, Winston Peters could, at a spritely 81, occupy a senior spot at the Cabinet table.
What’s the common thread? Millions will vote without any conviction that better days are ahead. Historically, the greater good has come from improvements for the greatest number. If the social contract becomes a law of diminishing returns, then fractious days are ahead.
I’m not saying democracy is serving to stay alive in a fifth-set match tie-break, but it is one set all, five all in the third. Democracy cannot afford to drop its serve. And it must prevail in the rallies of opinion against its detractors.
What’s the common thread? Millions will vote without any conviction that better days are ahead. Historically, the greater good has come from improvements for the greatest number. If the social contract becomes a law of diminishing returns, then fractious days are ahead.
I’m not saying democracy is serving to stay alive in a fifth-set match tie-break, but it is one set all, five all in the third. Democracy cannot afford to drop its serve. And it must prevail in the rallies of opinion against its detractors.
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