A tale of a few elections - passing trends or permanent shifts?

Fads : a practice or interest followed for a time with exaggerated zeal.

I’ve known a few fads, but then again too few to mention. Well, maybe not!

Hula hoops, Yo-yos, Drive ins, Polka dot bikinis ,3D glasses, Fidget spinners, Diets- grapefruit, egg free, keto, paleo, Atkins, vegan, blood type, intermittent fasting, 5:2, carnivore, low sugar, low salt, cabbage soup, Israeli desert soldier, CSIRO, low-carb, hip and thigh- RSI, Y2 Bug, Shoulder pads, Mini skirts, Fusion cooking, salted caramel, Nouvelle Cuisine-a synonym for expensive starvation- Rolodex, Highlighters, Teletubbies, denim jackets, flares and bellbottom jeans, B1 and B2, Cabbage patch kids, Reeboks, Alice bands, Fergie bows, Leg warmers, Hot yoga, cold yoga, Pilates, Feldenkrais, slinkys or should that be slinkies?, Pokemon, Pacman, Grand Theft Auto, Fortnite, Temu and the latest, Labubus.

In the world of politics, the salient question is whether the rise of right-wing populist parties in and around the Anglosphere is an ephemeral fad or the start of a more permanent realignment of the political spectrum.

South Australia, one of Australia’s six states, has always been somewhat of a political maverick. It was the second English speaking jurisdiction in the world to give women the vote after New Zealand. It was the first State in Australia to appoint an indigenous Governor. It was the first State in Australia to appoint a woman to be a Justice of its Supreme Court. It has been the birthplace of progressive left-of-centre political parties including the Liberal Movement party and was a great supporter of the all but defunct Australian Democrats.

Once again, South Australia may have been the canary in the political coal mine, alerting us to a significant political shift in the nation’s thinking. At its election last Saturday, the One Nation party recorded 22.6 % of the primary vote.

Under the State’s proportional voting system, One Nation has won three Upper House seats and stands a chance of winning four Lower House seats, taking it within a whisker of becoming the State’s official Opposition. Support for One Nation has halved the primary vote for the Liberal Party (19.3%) and taken votes away from a highly popular Labor government that won 37.4% of the vote.

One Nation is not an overnight sensation. Formed in the mid-1990s by its leader, Pauline Hanson, the party has had representation in the Federal House of Representatives, continues to have representation in the Federal Senate, has won Legislative Assembly seats in Queensland and Upper House seats in New South Wales.

For all of that, the party has been dismissed by most commentators as a  party of extremist right-wing views, especially immigration, indigenous reconciliation, and climate change.  Most of the mainstream commentariat have dismissed  One Nation for many years as a populist rabble, an irritant without legitimate claims to be a ‘serious’ party.

Now the commentariat is starting to choke on their turmeric lattes. 

The vote received by One Nation in the South Australian election is not a mere irritation for the major parties. It demonstrates, just as similarly oriented parties in Europe have done, that voters from both sides of the political spectrum believe that established centrist parties are not either recognising or responding to the social and political challenges that most concern them.

This sense of alienation felt by voters in Australia has been reinforced by a further heightening of cost-of-living pressures arising from the Iranian conflict. One Nation and similar parties have captured the disenchantment that many feel about their social and economic identity and confidence.

One wonders what Nigel Farage made this week of the liturgy of the ceremony installing England’s first female Archbishop of Canterbury. Part of it was spoken in Urdu to recognise the language of the church in Pakistan and an African choir led choruses from Namibia and the Congo. Meanwhile, in England’s Birmingham, lines at foodbanks grow and fertiliser and diesel run out in Bathurst a key services town in regional New South Wales, Australia.

So, is One Nation/Farage style populism a fad or a permanent fixture on the political landscape? Many would argue that the Trump presidency is proof that the agenda of populism is not an extremist pre-occupation. In addition, England’s first past the post voting system and the proportional voting system of many European nations, give such parties strong prospects of immediate electoral influence.

In Australia, our compulsory full preferential voting system weakens the chance of One Nation becoming an overnight sensation and threatening the hold on government of the major parties. Ironically, the Liberal Party of South Australia may hold onto some of its seats through Labor Party preferences favouring them above One Nation.

The next test for One Nation will be in a Federal by-election for the southern New South Wales regional seat of Farrer to be held on 9^th May. One Nation success in the by-election, either through victory or surpassing the vote of the Liberal and National parties would further solidify a belief that the One Nation vote is not a passing fad.

Following Farrer is the Victorian State election in late November. The Liberal Party in Victoria reflects the South Australian branch:  only one term of office in the last generation,  internecine factional divisions, a myriad of leadership changes and a seeming inability to present a credible alternative to the electorate.

However, the South Australian result may have a silver lining for the Victorian Liberals.

Unlike South Australia, Victoria does not have a popular Premier seeking a second term in office. Quite the opposite. Jacinta Allan has a record low negative approval rating. Her government is seeking a fourth term of four years. Her government is  besieged by allegations of corruption and cronyism. Above all else, it is a government drowning in dismal economic news. Victoria has the largest debt in the Commonwealth. Investment capital has fled the State as a range of crippling taxes have been levied to fund overblown infrastructure projects and relieve debt.

The Liberals can make clear to voters that if they wish to eject the government then there is only one sure vote to cast. The secondary message from the Liberal Party to voters will be that if you vote One Nation and abandon Labor, be aware that your preferences will matter more than ever!

If One Nation is enjoying a surge of success,  then so too are Jannik Sinner and Arnya Sabalenka. Both conquered in the Australian Open, Sinner and Sabalenka are storming through the spring season in America. Sabalenka exacted revenge for her defeat in the Australian Open final by beating Rybakina in a stirring final in the  Indian Wells Masters, where she saved a match point in the match deciding tie-break of the third set. Sinner edged past Medvedev and, like Sabalenka, is  now poised to add the Miami Masters to his trophy collection. Sabalenka once again conquered Rybakina, this time in straight sets in their semi-final.  Alcaraz, Australia’s champion has struggled, losing to Medvedev in Indian Wells and 32 ranked Sebastian Korda in Miami.

Tennis, like politics, is a contest that is won by sustained changes in momentum. Right now, the appeal of the populist Right seems to have struck a growing chord of approval.

Parties that were once seen, to use tennis language, as unseeded and minor are now comfortably holding their serve. More concerning for major political parties such as England’s Conservatives and Australia’s right of centre Liberal Party,  is that such parties may well be capable of sending them to a breaking point.